Below is the comparison table for STI blue chips (Updated as 2-July-11):
From the table, it is obviously that NOL, SGX & Capitaland are laggard far behind STI index. Let's see if all blue chips will be rallying according to analysis table.
Just to share my personal investment feeling throughout the journey of learning to be a market investor
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Blue Chip Performance
Since the market has just been recovered & possible to start the last rally of bull run, I have an idea to keep track for the blue chips if they will rally first before 2nd liners & penny stocks to be followed subsequently. Current STI index has stayed at 3139 pts, and with the catalyst of last rally, STI is possible to reach previous high at 3900 pts in 2007, or even new high at 4200 pts with the calculation of market PE at 10. So based on previous high 3900 pts, there is around 25% room for improvement for the blue chips to reach the level. Let's take a look for individual STI index stocks for their fair value if reach the level. That can be explained why we should focus on penny stocks (with strong fundamental), which probably have 50~100% return in last phase of bull run.
Below is the comparison table for STI blue chips (Updated as 2-July-11):
Below is the comparison table for STI blue chips (Updated as 2-July-11):
Thursday, June 30, 2011
"How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes" by Peter D. Schiff
Some hightlight & quotes from the book:
"Home prices were firmly tied to people's ability to pay, which is a function of income and credit availability."
"From 1997 to 2006 US national home prices gained an astounding 19.4% per year on average. Over that time incomes barely budged. So why could people pay so much? The difference was credit, which governement policy made much cheaper & easier to get. But credit could not expand forever, and eventually conditions tightened. When they did, there was nothing to hold prices up.
So when the market crested, the easy money that for years had poured into the economy stopped flowing. Even if there had been no other economic reversals that followed the housing bust (which there were), the economy would have had to shrink without all the free cash. A recession was not only inevitable but absolutely necessary to rebalance the economy.
But when the economy started to contract, lawmakers and economists treated the development not as the inevitable consequence of years of easy money and overspending, but as the problem itself. In other words, they mistook the cure for the disease.
The policy goals of both the Bush and Obama administrations have been to encourage consumers to spend as they had before the housing crash. But how? If unemployment rose, and incomes and home prices fell, where would consumers get the money?
Economists have declared that if the people can't spend, the government needs to step up and do it for them. But the government doesn't have any money. All it has is what it collects in taxes and what it borrows or prints.
For now, this process is just creating massive public debt ($1.6 trillion per year and counting). And although the numbers look bad, we are still able to sell most of this debt on the open market, primarily to foreigners.
But out "good fortune" can't last forever. Ultimately the US government will have only two options: default (tell our creditors that we can't pay, and negotiate a settlement) or inflation (print money to pay off maturing debt). Either option will lead to painful consequences. Default, which does offer the possibility of a real reckoning and a fresh beginning, is actually the better alternative. Unfortunately, while inflation is worse, it is also the more politically expedient."
"One option for the government to increase revenue by raising taxes. This path is never popular wih citizens, and in a democracy is hard to push through. Even in authoritarian states (where there are no pesky elections), tax increases are problematic. Higher rates always discourage productivity and deflate economic vitality. There is a limit to how high taxes can go. Raise them enough, and people stop working. Raise them higher, and they may even start rioting.
A far better option is to cut government spending. However, this is often more difficult than raising taxes. Politicians make lots of promises to secure their elections and voters rarely consider the ability of taxpayers to actually foot the bills. For political leaders, default can be rather embarrassing, as it amounts to an official acknowledgement of insolvency. To avoid this, many opt to simply print money to pay debts, effectively repudiating their obligations by inflating them away. Since inflation is usually the easiest choice to make, it is often the most likely. But while it may seem easy at first, it ultimately exacts the harshest toll.
Inflation allows governments to avoid hard choices and dispose of their debt on the sly. By printing money governments can nominally pay back all that they owe, but they do so by diluting their currency. Creditors get paid, but what they get isn't worth much, and if inflation turns into hyperinflation, it's worth nothing.
Inflation is simply a means to transfer wealth from anyone who has savings in a particular currency to anyone who has debt in the same currency. With hyperinflation, the value of savings gets completely wiped out and the burden of debt is removed. (Hard assets will rise in nominal value when inflation flares up)"
"Artificially low interest rates (which made the economy appear healthy) invigorated the market for adjustable rate mortgages and gave birth to the teaser rate, which made overpriced homes seam afforable."
"As consumers logically stopped spending after the housing boom deprived them of easy money, the government stepped in with a massive $700 billion stimulus in order to keep the registers ringing. This spending, which the government has borrowed from future generations, has kept us from the pain of living within our means.
By refusing to allow market forces to rein in excess spending, liquidate bad investments, replenish depleted savings, fund capital investment, and help workers transition from the service sector to the manufacturing sector, the government has resisted the cure while exacerbating the disease. In the process, we have turned just about all forms of debt into government debt, and have blown up another bubble, this time in Treasury bonds.
Unfortunately, this bubble threatens to dwarf all preceding asset bubbles. Its eventual bursting, which will cause consumer prices and interest rates to soar, will have even more devastating effects on the economy than the dot-com and housing bubbles combined."
"Home prices were firmly tied to people's ability to pay, which is a function of income and credit availability."
"From 1997 to 2006 US national home prices gained an astounding 19.4% per year on average. Over that time incomes barely budged. So why could people pay so much? The difference was credit, which governement policy made much cheaper & easier to get. But credit could not expand forever, and eventually conditions tightened. When they did, there was nothing to hold prices up.
So when the market crested, the easy money that for years had poured into the economy stopped flowing. Even if there had been no other economic reversals that followed the housing bust (which there were), the economy would have had to shrink without all the free cash. A recession was not only inevitable but absolutely necessary to rebalance the economy.
But when the economy started to contract, lawmakers and economists treated the development not as the inevitable consequence of years of easy money and overspending, but as the problem itself. In other words, they mistook the cure for the disease.
The policy goals of both the Bush and Obama administrations have been to encourage consumers to spend as they had before the housing crash. But how? If unemployment rose, and incomes and home prices fell, where would consumers get the money?
Economists have declared that if the people can't spend, the government needs to step up and do it for them. But the government doesn't have any money. All it has is what it collects in taxes and what it borrows or prints.
For now, this process is just creating massive public debt ($1.6 trillion per year and counting). And although the numbers look bad, we are still able to sell most of this debt on the open market, primarily to foreigners.
But out "good fortune" can't last forever. Ultimately the US government will have only two options: default (tell our creditors that we can't pay, and negotiate a settlement) or inflation (print money to pay off maturing debt). Either option will lead to painful consequences. Default, which does offer the possibility of a real reckoning and a fresh beginning, is actually the better alternative. Unfortunately, while inflation is worse, it is also the more politically expedient."
"One option for the government to increase revenue by raising taxes. This path is never popular wih citizens, and in a democracy is hard to push through. Even in authoritarian states (where there are no pesky elections), tax increases are problematic. Higher rates always discourage productivity and deflate economic vitality. There is a limit to how high taxes can go. Raise them enough, and people stop working. Raise them higher, and they may even start rioting.
A far better option is to cut government spending. However, this is often more difficult than raising taxes. Politicians make lots of promises to secure their elections and voters rarely consider the ability of taxpayers to actually foot the bills. For political leaders, default can be rather embarrassing, as it amounts to an official acknowledgement of insolvency. To avoid this, many opt to simply print money to pay debts, effectively repudiating their obligations by inflating them away. Since inflation is usually the easiest choice to make, it is often the most likely. But while it may seem easy at first, it ultimately exacts the harshest toll.
Inflation allows governments to avoid hard choices and dispose of their debt on the sly. By printing money governments can nominally pay back all that they owe, but they do so by diluting their currency. Creditors get paid, but what they get isn't worth much, and if inflation turns into hyperinflation, it's worth nothing.
Inflation is simply a means to transfer wealth from anyone who has savings in a particular currency to anyone who has debt in the same currency. With hyperinflation, the value of savings gets completely wiped out and the burden of debt is removed. (Hard assets will rise in nominal value when inflation flares up)"
"Artificially low interest rates (which made the economy appear healthy) invigorated the market for adjustable rate mortgages and gave birth to the teaser rate, which made overpriced homes seam afforable."
"As consumers logically stopped spending after the housing boom deprived them of easy money, the government stepped in with a massive $700 billion stimulus in order to keep the registers ringing. This spending, which the government has borrowed from future generations, has kept us from the pain of living within our means.
By refusing to allow market forces to rein in excess spending, liquidate bad investments, replenish depleted savings, fund capital investment, and help workers transition from the service sector to the manufacturing sector, the government has resisted the cure while exacerbating the disease. In the process, we have turned just about all forms of debt into government debt, and have blown up another bubble, this time in Treasury bonds.
Unfortunately, this bubble threatens to dwarf all preceding asset bubbles. Its eventual bursting, which will cause consumer prices and interest rates to soar, will have even more devastating effects on the economy than the dot-com and housing bubbles combined."
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Euro debt crisis again!
Gosh! Europe debt crisis reappear on the surface again. Even with the bailout amount of 110 billion euro from EU previously, Greece still cannot manage to recover from recession & repay the debt.
The ultimate grace for Greece in order to get another bailout from EU & IMF is to lay down a 5 years financial budget on tightening their monetary, e.g increase taxes, cut government expenses & sell country assets etc. All these measures will definitely create social unrest, woes or even workforce strike. But what they can do in order to survive & prevent bankruptcy of country? Their people, nation & citizens have to suffer & compromise for the "malignant tumor" left by their past government.
I believe Greece is not the only country to suffer the debt crisis now, others e.g Portugal, Ireland, Italy & Spain will be the next to face all these in order to receive bailout if they still without any financial tightening plan. The final outcome may likely to disrupt the EU to only keeping the fundamental strong economy countries in the union & slashing those weaker countries, which might apparently destroy the liquidity of Euro currency as the replacement of US dollar.
In the end, China RMB may appear to be the strongest currency to replace US dollar in the next decades.
The ultimate grace for Greece in order to get another bailout from EU & IMF is to lay down a 5 years financial budget on tightening their monetary, e.g increase taxes, cut government expenses & sell country assets etc. All these measures will definitely create social unrest, woes or even workforce strike. But what they can do in order to survive & prevent bankruptcy of country? Their people, nation & citizens have to suffer & compromise for the "malignant tumor" left by their past government.
I believe Greece is not the only country to suffer the debt crisis now, others e.g Portugal, Ireland, Italy & Spain will be the next to face all these in order to receive bailout if they still without any financial tightening plan. The final outcome may likely to disrupt the EU to only keeping the fundamental strong economy countries in the union & slashing those weaker countries, which might apparently destroy the liquidity of Euro currency as the replacement of US dollar.
In the end, China RMB may appear to be the strongest currency to replace US dollar in the next decades.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
3rd MasterYourFinance.com Gathering – 16 May 11
Below is the summary for the information shared by Dennis Ng during seminar graduates gathering, courtesy thanks to Alvin Chow (from www.bigfatpurse.com) for his unselfish & quick summarize for the topics.
http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2011/05/3rd-masteryourfinance-com-gathering-%e2%80%93-16-may-11/
http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2011/05/3rd-masteryourfinance-com-gathering-%e2%80%93-16-may-11/
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Review for Silver movement
Silver price has been plunged from close to record high at US$49 to current price US$35.5, which around 38% major correction. So what's the reason behind for this time round correction? From I think are 1) profit taking as the psychological barrier at US$50; 2) increase of the deposit for Silver futures in US market cause the weaker holder short sell or profit taking; 3) Big financial institution, e.g. George Soros leading fund & World richest man - Carlos Slim Helú has been selling Silver to earn big bucks. But in terms of fundamental view of Silver situation, it still has not been changed all the while as the supply is limited and the demand from emerging markets is robust.
What can you learn from this time round of correction? The only regret I have is not able to sell 50% (Note: not 100% as I still think bullish of Silver) of my holding at the high price, and buy back at low price later. Currently, I'm still enjoying ROI of 26% for my Silver, which in fact, the strategies I have thought is probably I'm going to increase my stake on Silver as the price plunge or stay sideline if the price increase. The mid-term support level is at US$30, as the current price is ranging between US$33 - 36. Compare to the downside (at US$30) & upside (at US$49 as previous record) for Silver price, the decision has come clear that upside is definitely double than downside. Thus I have made my mind to increase the stake.
From the TA, the current price is below 50 MA (US$39.1), slight above 100MA (US$35.35) & far above 200 MA (US$28.84). We shall see if a pattern of head & shoulder will be formed on next few weeks before it might reverse the chart to bearish again.
What can you learn from this time round of correction? The only regret I have is not able to sell 50% (Note: not 100% as I still think bullish of Silver) of my holding at the high price, and buy back at low price later. Currently, I'm still enjoying ROI of 26% for my Silver, which in fact, the strategies I have thought is probably I'm going to increase my stake on Silver as the price plunge or stay sideline if the price increase. The mid-term support level is at US$30, as the current price is ranging between US$33 - 36. Compare to the downside (at US$30) & upside (at US$49 as previous record) for Silver price, the decision has come clear that upside is definitely double than downside. Thus I have made my mind to increase the stake.
From the TA, the current price is below 50 MA (US$39.1), slight above 100MA (US$35.35) & far above 200 MA (US$28.84). We shall see if a pattern of head & shoulder will be formed on next few weeks before it might reverse the chart to bearish again.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Investment Feeling on 01-Apr-11
A new start of the month, STI index has closed above 3100 level at 3120 pts. The investing atmosphere in the past 1 week has been improved significantly from previous bearish trend though current situation (e.g. Libya war, Japanese Nuclear crisis) still remain uncertain at the mean time. The overnight Dow Jones market has remain bullish with the reduce of unemployment rate since 2 years. So the next week STI market will be looked forward to the next level of resistance at 3200 pts or even 3300 pts (provided strong bullish if nothing big happen on next week.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Investment Feeling on 25-Mar-11
After a series of day of rally for STI to stabilize above 3000 points, with thanks to Dow Jones & emerging markets strong rally as well as the situation at Japan (Quake & Nuclear crisis) & Libya (war ongoing) been factored into the consideration, the formation of double bottom has indicated that STI will likely to rebound from that, but it might be happened to be multiple bottom (in short term) due to other concerns, which has been arise in the past of week, e.g. Euro zone credit crisis (Portugal & Spain), the impact of US Treasuries fund (Japan may sell of US bond in order to raise money for rebuilding their country). In the view of long term, the deadline for US Federal of buying the US Treasuries bond on 30-June-11 will be testing the confidence level of investors in the US economy growth & unemployment rate in US, which might trigger the next Global Financial Crisis again. In the view of Mid-term, Emerging markets (including STI) might be continued to rally to test a new high in 2007 provided that the "hot" money will be diverted from US market into the laggard markets here.
To review my current portfolio concurrently with the recent hovering situation, I have only offloaded Yangzhijiang at $1.71, which only 4.5% slim profit for me after holding for 6 months, reasons behind was over-panic for recent market movement, limited upside growth for YZJ and raise the cash level after sold it. But today, it has been rebounded to price of $1.82. So what i have learned is on how to control your emotional during the market correction if you believe the overall market trend is still on uptrend in a bigger picture. As long as the fundamental of a particular stock has never been changed or the overall market cycle is intact, just hold on it until it is reversing. It is really a good opportunity & lesson learned in the past few weeks. As now, my stock portfolio has regained some porfit and will definitely to hold till the last bull run begin before the next Global Financial crisis has begun. It's possible to add-on some position of bargain buy concurrently with the market rally. Let's look forward for the fruitful gain throughout the cycle....
To review my current portfolio concurrently with the recent hovering situation, I have only offloaded Yangzhijiang at $1.71, which only 4.5% slim profit for me after holding for 6 months, reasons behind was over-panic for recent market movement, limited upside growth for YZJ and raise the cash level after sold it. But today, it has been rebounded to price of $1.82. So what i have learned is on how to control your emotional during the market correction if you believe the overall market trend is still on uptrend in a bigger picture. As long as the fundamental of a particular stock has never been changed or the overall market cycle is intact, just hold on it until it is reversing. It is really a good opportunity & lesson learned in the past few weeks. As now, my stock portfolio has regained some porfit and will definitely to hold till the last bull run begin before the next Global Financial crisis has begun. It's possible to add-on some position of bargain buy concurrently with the market rally. Let's look forward for the fruitful gain throughout the cycle....
Friday, March 18, 2011
Investment Feeling on 18-Mar-11
Today is the IPO debut day for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, as expected, due to the Nuclear & Quake crisis in Japan and situation unrest in Libya, HPH Trust has closed 6%, which is US$0.95 below IPO price at US$1.01. From the volume transaction & distribution, it seems like retail investors, whom hope to earn some "coffee" money from the IPO has been struggling by the huge selldown by those big institutions. Since the offering price for HPH Trust is largely overvalued & highly over-subscribed pus moderate & unattractive dividend yield, it looks like there is a room for improvement to all the retail investors for their financial knowledge.
STI has been closed below 3000 pts continuously for 4 days, but yet the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA. Overall, STI has declined 3.5% for this week and closed at 2935 pts. Let's see the Nuclear crisis & situation at Libya will be under control or ease, which may trigger the reversal trend for equity market.
STI has been closed below 3000 pts continuously for 4 days, but yet the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA. Overall, STI has declined 3.5% for this week and closed at 2935 pts. Let's see the Nuclear crisis & situation at Libya will be under control or ease, which may trigger the reversal trend for equity market.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Investment Feeling on 11-Mar-11
After the continuous rally for few days to reach 3100 pts above, STI index has dipped below 3050 pts again due to the several concerns, e.g. Libya riots, Saudi unrest (possible to hike oil price), Spain credit terms, China interest rate hike & a major incident happened on Friday afternoon, which was M8.9 earthquake at eastern Japan. This big quake has given the overall stock market a big shock & caused the stock market dipped before closing.
Though overnight US Dow Jones has closed slightly higher, where investors were selectively buying undervalue stocks & those construction, material stocks due to the rebuild situation after the earthquake in Japan. We shall see Asian stock markets situation on Monday whether will be badly affected or rebound due to the better bargain buy on selective stocks. Current focuses on Middle East or North Africa unrest may temporary divert investors' interest to the rescue & rebuild situation in Japan at the moment, I shall pray & bless the people in Japan for the situation to be controlled & safe in the priority. Hope this may not be a big hurdle for the stock market to begin the last Bull rally in the view of market cycle investors.
Though overnight US Dow Jones has closed slightly higher, where investors were selectively buying undervalue stocks & those construction, material stocks due to the rebuild situation after the earthquake in Japan. We shall see Asian stock markets situation on Monday whether will be badly affected or rebound due to the better bargain buy on selective stocks. Current focuses on Middle East or North Africa unrest may temporary divert investors' interest to the rescue & rebuild situation in Japan at the moment, I shall pray & bless the people in Japan for the situation to be controlled & safe in the priority. Hope this may not be a big hurdle for the stock market to begin the last Bull rally in the view of market cycle investors.
Monday, March 7, 2011
United SSE 50 China ETF
Extracted from Semi Annual Report for period 1st July to 31st December 2010
Fundamental Analysis
Market Outlook
Remain constructive on the Chinese 'A' shares market. The strong China PMI points to continued improving economic conditions going forward. China's relatively resilient growth versus the rest of the world and strong fundamentals such as high savings rate and low public debt will stand out in the world facing public debt crisis and fiscal consolidation that will stifle growth.
The recent interest rate hikes and policy tighthening do not considered as negative in the medium to long term. It is a good pre-emptive move by the government in the context of an improving economy and potential inflation pressures. Rates hikes in a robust economy can still be good for markets as what happened for China in 2006 and 2007. In fact, it will be positive on earnings for insurance companies and the large banks. The steady appreciation of the Rmb will also make Chinese assets more attractive. Market valuations remain attractive compared to historical levels, as well as relative to regional markets.
Nonetheless, inflation concerns will be a central theme in the near term. The urgency of Chinese authorities in combating inflation goes beyond just financial implications - it involves more societal and national stability concerns of the government as the impact of inflation is strongest on the price of food items, the important necessities of its citizens. In order to prevent potential unhappiness and discontent among its citizens and address the issue immediately, the authorities will definitely be closely monitoring the impact and success of the tightening measures announced thus far. If attempts to contain inflation are unsuccessful, other possible measures to be implemented would probably involve some form of price controls on key food necessities.
Portfolio Review
SSE 50 Index includes the constituents in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials and Telecommunication Services sectors all posted positive returns. The constituents in the Financials and Industrials sectors posted mixed results, while the constituents in the Utilities all fell.
Prospectus from UOB:
http://www.uobam.com.sg/uobam/assets/pdfs/prospectus/sse50_etf.pdf
Technical Analysis
Technical Chart for SSE Composite Index with MA indicators - it shows the index line continuously on uptrend with 200MA at 2735 points, the resistent level will be at 3000 points and the mid-term support level will be at 2850 points.
Technical Chart for SSE 50 China ETF performance with MA indicators - it shows the price line has cut & crossed above the 200 MA line at 2.03 after rebound from the formation of double dip. Historical price at Jan 2010 is at 2.54 as compared to current price at 2.06 which has a potential upside of 23%.
Conclusion
SSE 50 China ETF is a good alternative to invest into China stock market if you are not familiar with the individual China A shares. Due to potential growth for emerging markets like China which has taken over Japan as World No.2 largest GDP country (behind US) and the appreciation of Renminbi currency, a potential record high for SSE Composite Index in this year 2011 is possible after the depression & dip from previous year 2010. As a result, I will recommend to invest into SSE 50 China ETF as a ride follower to the growth of China market.
Fundamental Analysis
Market Outlook
Remain constructive on the Chinese 'A' shares market. The strong China PMI points to continued improving economic conditions going forward. China's relatively resilient growth versus the rest of the world and strong fundamentals such as high savings rate and low public debt will stand out in the world facing public debt crisis and fiscal consolidation that will stifle growth.
The recent interest rate hikes and policy tighthening do not considered as negative in the medium to long term. It is a good pre-emptive move by the government in the context of an improving economy and potential inflation pressures. Rates hikes in a robust economy can still be good for markets as what happened for China in 2006 and 2007. In fact, it will be positive on earnings for insurance companies and the large banks. The steady appreciation of the Rmb will also make Chinese assets more attractive. Market valuations remain attractive compared to historical levels, as well as relative to regional markets.
Nonetheless, inflation concerns will be a central theme in the near term. The urgency of Chinese authorities in combating inflation goes beyond just financial implications - it involves more societal and national stability concerns of the government as the impact of inflation is strongest on the price of food items, the important necessities of its citizens. In order to prevent potential unhappiness and discontent among its citizens and address the issue immediately, the authorities will definitely be closely monitoring the impact and success of the tightening measures announced thus far. If attempts to contain inflation are unsuccessful, other possible measures to be implemented would probably involve some form of price controls on key food necessities.
Portfolio Review
SSE 50 Index includes the constituents in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials and Telecommunication Services sectors all posted positive returns. The constituents in the Financials and Industrials sectors posted mixed results, while the constituents in the Utilities all fell.
Prospectus from UOB:
http://www.uobam.com.sg/uobam/assets/pdfs/prospectus/sse50_etf.pdf
Technical Analysis
Technical Chart for SSE Composite Index with MA indicators - it shows the index line continuously on uptrend with 200MA at 2735 points, the resistent level will be at 3000 points and the mid-term support level will be at 2850 points.
Technical Chart for SSE 50 China ETF performance with MA indicators - it shows the price line has cut & crossed above the 200 MA line at 2.03 after rebound from the formation of double dip. Historical price at Jan 2010 is at 2.54 as compared to current price at 2.06 which has a potential upside of 23%.
Conclusion
SSE 50 China ETF is a good alternative to invest into China stock market if you are not familiar with the individual China A shares. Due to potential growth for emerging markets like China which has taken over Japan as World No.2 largest GDP country (behind US) and the appreciation of Renminbi currency, a potential record high for SSE Composite Index in this year 2011 is possible after the depression & dip from previous year 2010. As a result, I will recommend to invest into SSE 50 China ETF as a ride follower to the growth of China market.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Recent IPO Listings (Updated on 06-Mar-2011)
IPOs Comparison for recent listings in SGX market (Data extracted from Shareinvestor website):
Remarks:
^ Amtek - 18,500,000 Singapore Public Offer Shares do not include the 1,500,000 Reserved Shares
^ Mewah - 12,584,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 6,506,000 Reserved Shares
^ Mun Siong - 95,000,000 Placement Shares do not include the 10,000,000 Reserved Shares
^ MapletreeInd - 80,645,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 25,500,000 Reserved Units
Remarks:
^ Amtek - 18,500,000 Singapore Public Offer Shares do not include the 1,500,000 Reserved Shares
^ Mewah - 12,584,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 6,506,000 Reserved Shares
^ Mun Siong - 95,000,000 Placement Shares do not include the 10,000,000 Reserved Shares
^ MapletreeInd - 80,645,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 25,500,000 Reserved Units
IPO - Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Hutchison Whampoa's ports unit is looking to raise as much as US$5.8 billion (S$7.3 billion) in an initial public offering in Singapore, allowing investors to tap into China's booming infrastructure business. South-east Asia's biggest listing comes at a time when intra-Asia sea-borne trade is swelling, and global container-shipping firms are putting more ships and resources to serve Asian routes from Europe and North America.
Background:
Hutchison, the world's largest container-terminal operator, is owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka Shing, who is spinning off HPH Trust in the separate listing in Singapore to take advantage of regulations that are favourable for trust-like companies.
The Business portfolio of HPH Trust comprises:
HPH Trust’s interest in the operators of the Portfolio Container Terminals which consists of:
(i) Hongkong International Terminals Limited, the owner and operator of Terminals 4, 6, 7 and two berths in Terminal 9 at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ HIT ”);
(ii) 50% interest in COSCO-HIT Terminals (Hong Kong) Limited, the owner and operator of Terminal 8 East at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ COSCO-HIT ”);
Together, HIT and COSCO-HIT had approximately 60% of the market share of Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong, by throughput in 2009 and operate 14 of the 24 deep-water berths in Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong;
(iii) 56% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phases I and II;
(iv) 50% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals (Phase III) Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phase III and its expansion project, which is being developed; and
(v) 50% interest in Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Limited, the operator of Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase I and Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase II, which is being developed.
Yantian (which comprises Yantian Phases I & II, Yantian Phase III, Yantian Phase III Expansion, West Port Phase I and West Port Phase II) is the leading privately owned and operated deep-water container port in East Shenzhen, and the overall market leader in Shenzhen with a market share of approximately 47% by throughput in 2009.
Investors:
Paulson will invest US$350 million in the IPO, whereas a Temasek unit will put in US$100 million. Singapore port giant PSA International has a 20 per cent stake in Hutchison's portfolio of ports, which it bought for US$4.4 billion in 2006. PSA itself has long talked of a public listing here, but has no immediate plans to launch an IPO.
The prospectus link as below:
http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf/e25d3309aa11eacd48256f64000f86d1/42732CEE2BFBBB75482578450010B1AC/$File/HPH%20Trust%20Preliminary%20Prospectus%20(28%20Feb%202011).pdf
Distribution Yield :
5.5% - 6.5% (FY2011) and 6.1% - 7.2% (FY2012) ; based on the minimum and maximum offering prices.
The NAV calculation as below:Total Equity (Net Assets)=US$1371.2 millions (Based on latest finanical results on AY2010)
No. of shares issued=3619.29 mil to 3899.51 millions
Net Asset Value (NAV)=US$1371.2/(3619.29 ~ 3899.51)= US$0.35 ~ $0.38
In my opinion, it's NOT a bargain buy as compared to the Offering Price at US$0.91 ~ US$1.08.
Background:
Hutchison, the world's largest container-terminal operator, is owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka Shing, who is spinning off HPH Trust in the separate listing in Singapore to take advantage of regulations that are favourable for trust-like companies.
The Business portfolio of HPH Trust comprises:
HPH Trust’s interest in the operators of the Portfolio Container Terminals which consists of:
(i) Hongkong International Terminals Limited, the owner and operator of Terminals 4, 6, 7 and two berths in Terminal 9 at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ HIT ”);
(ii) 50% interest in COSCO-HIT Terminals (Hong Kong) Limited, the owner and operator of Terminal 8 East at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ COSCO-HIT ”);
Together, HIT and COSCO-HIT had approximately 60% of the market share of Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong, by throughput in 2009 and operate 14 of the 24 deep-water berths in Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong;
(iii) 56% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phases I and II;
(iv) 50% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals (Phase III) Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phase III and its expansion project, which is being developed; and
(v) 50% interest in Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Limited, the operator of Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase I and Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase II, which is being developed.
Yantian (which comprises Yantian Phases I & II, Yantian Phase III, Yantian Phase III Expansion, West Port Phase I and West Port Phase II) is the leading privately owned and operated deep-water container port in East Shenzhen, and the overall market leader in Shenzhen with a market share of approximately 47% by throughput in 2009.
Investors:
Paulson will invest US$350 million in the IPO, whereas a Temasek unit will put in US$100 million. Singapore port giant PSA International has a 20 per cent stake in Hutchison's portfolio of ports, which it bought for US$4.4 billion in 2006. PSA itself has long talked of a public listing here, but has no immediate plans to launch an IPO.
The prospectus link as below:
http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf/e25d3309aa11eacd48256f64000f86d1/42732CEE2BFBBB75482578450010B1AC/$File/HPH%20Trust%20Preliminary%20Prospectus%20(28%20Feb%202011).pdf
Distribution Yield :
5.5% - 6.5% (FY2011) and 6.1% - 7.2% (FY2012) ; based on the minimum and maximum offering prices.
The NAV calculation as below:Total Equity (Net Assets)=US$1371.2 millions (Based on latest finanical results on AY2010)
No. of shares issued=3619.29 mil to 3899.51 millions
Net Asset Value (NAV)=US$1371.2/(3619.29 ~ 3899.51)= US$0.35 ~ $0.38
In my opinion, it's NOT a bargain buy as compared to the Offering Price at US$0.91 ~ US$1.08.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Technical Analysis for Silver
Silver price has been reaching at US$34++ since the highest record in 1980s at US$50. The resistance level is at US$35, once it breaks the level, Silver price will likely rise to test the level at US$40. Based on the 5 year Silver chart, the 200 MA level is at US$23 which indicate that there requires a major correction of 33% in order to reverse the overall trend of Silver, which is unlikely to happen due to the current high inflation & US Fed printing money factors.
So what are the potential upside for Silver price? Based on my personal opinion, there are few factors:
1) If factoring in inflation, current Silver price should be revised to US$130.
2) Based on historical average Gold / Silver ratio of 30, current Gold price at US$1450, which means Silver price should be rallied up US$48.
3) Gold price is historical high at all time, however Silver price is still considered as a laggard behind Gold.
As Dennis mentioned, "It is NOT silver prices going up, it's each US$ is likely to worth a whole lot less with so much printing of money....and causing Inflation".
So what are the potential upside for Silver price? Based on my personal opinion, there are few factors:
1) If factoring in inflation, current Silver price should be revised to US$130.
2) Based on historical average Gold / Silver ratio of 30, current Gold price at US$1450, which means Silver price should be rallied up US$48.
3) Gold price is historical high at all time, however Silver price is still considered as a laggard behind Gold.
As Dennis mentioned, "It is NOT silver prices going up, it's each US$ is likely to worth a whole lot less with so much printing of money....and causing Inflation".
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Investment Feeling on 01-Mar-11
Due to the encouragement & info sharing by my sifu-Dennis Ng & other investment mentors in the graduates forum, I have managed to hold tight for my stocks portfolio & went thru this time round of storm. STI index has been staying above 3000pts on these few days and even rise for almost 2% on today to close at 3067 pts due to yesterday Dow jones rally & the unrest situation in North Africa & Middle East been digested by market. As a result, the overall market wave still remain uptrend & the possibility of last round of bull run is remain optimistic.
Recently I have just shared some financial knowledge with my colleague & hope she is willing to attend Dennis's seminar for her own development & enhancement. I'm willing to share with others provided they have a willingness heart to learn or listen about it. Sometimes those people are too skeptical to receive other people advise or not willing to pay a price in order to receive a fruitful gain. Or even their egoism has make loss in any kind of investment. As a rule of thumb- "No lunch is free in this world"!
Recently I have just shared some financial knowledge with my colleague & hope she is willing to attend Dennis's seminar for her own development & enhancement. I'm willing to share with others provided they have a willingness heart to learn or listen about it. Sometimes those people are too skeptical to receive other people advise or not willing to pay a price in order to receive a fruitful gain. Or even their egoism has make loss in any kind of investment. As a rule of thumb- "No lunch is free in this world"!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Investment Feeling on 25-Feb-11
After storm, there always will be a sunshine day came through. Today is a sign of relief & fruitful day as STI index showing strong rebound from the previous day dipping, and finally close at 3025 pts which stayed above psychological level (refer to the chart as below):
But next week will be a crucial week for STI index to show the stability for it to stay strong above the level if the situation at Libya or other North Africa or Middle East countries can not be resolved. But in the view of next few months, the possibility of last bull run is likely to be occured, and subsequently lead to another round of finanical crisis. Current oil price has been staying at US$98 with a possibility to hike above US$100 level, this may give a hurdle for some countries to counter the inflation rate, the possible policies to counter the inflation rate may lead to higher interest rate, increase bank reserves and even affect the countries GDP to defer the growth of economy.
The recent correction has been giving a hit to overall equity markets, but at the same time, it also shaken the weaken holders for retail investors in order to reform the foundation before rising to the next level. Fortunately, precious metals, e.g. Silver or Gold, have shown outperforming than stock markets with thanks to high inflation & countries unrest. As s result, it shows the importance to diversify your investment portfolio into different aspects instead of putting all your eggs into a same basket. Currently, I've only putting 8% into the Silver investment, and majority portion into stock markets, which may not be healthy for long term investment. I've planned to reorganise my investment portfolio after this last round of bull run into moderate risk of financial tools, e.g. UK Endowment Plan (return yield - 4% to 8%), Land Banking, French Wine Investment or Property Investment.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Investment Feeling on 24-Feb-11
D-day! In the Morning, it still looked ranging & hovering between psychological support level at 3000 pts. Out of sudden, STI index slipped further for another 29 pts & close at 2973 pts. It's like a freefall of dark rain from the sky. Now it's really the moment for me to think deliberately before any decision made, either sold everything tomorrow before it's too late or expect technical rebound soon either on tomorrow or next week. For better understanding for STI index trend chart, please refer as below:
The psychology & emotion control is now bothering me to clear the hands or hold on it. At the moment, I may plan to realize some profits first before going to throw other losses stocks. I hope to secure my capital first before everything though I may suffer some losses or may regret if STI index is really rebound soon. But at the point of time, as a human, am I rational enough for the decision I'm going to make? Hope it works...
After all this, I've chat with my buddy regarding his current investment feeling. He just told me to assess my risk level whether I can tolerate the risk of dropping or intention to retain the capital. He shared after the previous 2 major corrections, which are subprime crisis & Europe crisis that are mainly related to the credit & debts by banks & countries. But this time round is actually the countries unrest & chaos and cause the oil price hiking & inflation concerns. So will it affect the fundamental of economy? Sure it will, but it's may only restricted to certain level but not the fundamental for overall economy to be grown.
So at last but not least, I would rather sit on tight to go thru this round of storm as I've realised that I'm still enjoying slim profit after today storm. What a relief! Stay tuned for tomorrow another roller coaster ride as I believe --> 否极泰来, 物极必反
The psychology & emotion control is now bothering me to clear the hands or hold on it. At the moment, I may plan to realize some profits first before going to throw other losses stocks. I hope to secure my capital first before everything though I may suffer some losses or may regret if STI index is really rebound soon. But at the point of time, as a human, am I rational enough for the decision I'm going to make? Hope it works...
After all this, I've chat with my buddy regarding his current investment feeling. He just told me to assess my risk level whether I can tolerate the risk of dropping or intention to retain the capital. He shared after the previous 2 major corrections, which are subprime crisis & Europe crisis that are mainly related to the credit & debts by banks & countries. But this time round is actually the countries unrest & chaos and cause the oil price hiking & inflation concerns. So will it affect the fundamental of economy? Sure it will, but it's may only restricted to certain level but not the fundamental for overall economy to be grown.
So at last but not least, I would rather sit on tight to go thru this round of storm as I've realised that I'm still enjoying slim profit after today storm. What a relief! Stay tuned for tomorrow another roller coaster ride as I believe --> 否极泰来, 物极必反
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Investment Feeling on 23-Feb-11
Yesterday (22-Feb-11) was really a bloody hell day for stock market. Almost all the profits were nearly wiped off due to major correction caused by countries riots & oil price hiking again. STI index was testing 3000 pts supporting level before confirm for reversing major trend line from uptrend to downtrend as it has crossed below 200MA. As Dennis commented, if STI index continuously stay below 3000 pts or 200MA for 5 days, it is likely to confirm that the major uptrend has been reversed & bear market has been kick-in.
As for today (23-Feb-11), STI index is still hovering around 3000 pts supporting level, likely to show slightly technical rebound from lowest level (2988 pts) & trying to stay above psychological support level.
So for me as learning to be a market investor, what have I done? I have quickly made a decision to reshuffle some of my stock portfolio, which are Tiong Woon (as it has crossed below 200MA & with poor financial result announced which shaken its fundamental) & Tuan Sing (due to wrong decision of chasing high price) into fundamental stronger penny, e.g CES & Viking. At least now I feel more secure & willing to hold long to stay tuned for next possible rebound. I hope I have made a sounds decision in order to cover my losses.
As for today (23-Feb-11), STI index is still hovering around 3000 pts supporting level, likely to show slightly technical rebound from lowest level (2988 pts) & trying to stay above psychological support level.
So for me as learning to be a market investor, what have I done? I have quickly made a decision to reshuffle some of my stock portfolio, which are Tiong Woon (as it has crossed below 200MA & with poor financial result announced which shaken its fundamental) & Tuan Sing (due to wrong decision of chasing high price) into fundamental stronger penny, e.g CES & Viking. At least now I feel more secure & willing to hold long to stay tuned for next possible rebound. I hope I have made a sounds decision in order to cover my losses.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Investment Feeling on 21-Feb-11
Today again, the North Africa & Middle East tensions have caused Asia stocks tumble, including STI index. Not only that, latest move from China on tightening policy in the form of banks' required reserves increase also cause the overall equity market shaded under a dark cloud. Even though after the G20 meeting, the policymakers reached a fudged on how to measure imbalances in global economy showed minimum impact to the market. Though recent noises (e.g. countries chaos or interest rates hiking etc) will remain bothering & creating unrest in equity market, but in a bigger picture, I'm still remain optimistic for the last rally in this rabbit year, in fact, I have just added on my position in some undervalued stocks during recent dips. Meanwhile, fortunately spreading unrest & uncertainty in North Africa & Middle East have continued to push commodities & precious metals higher. Silver price has crossed US$33+ level.. Stay tuned
Friday, February 18, 2011
Investment Feeling on 18-Feb-2011 (Part 2)
Today STI closed at 3087 pts, which is only 0.13% small gain, quite disappointing. But my overall stock portfolio also retract from big profit on this morning into small gain after the announcement for budget 2011. Frankly say I'm not bother much regarding this budget as I'm only Sg PR and I wont be benefit from it. But it might affect the overall stock investment atmosphere which likely will attract those retail investors go into stock market again if they satisfy & feel optimistic for this year prospect. Hopefully by next week, STI will digest the effect from this budget and continue to gear up in order to reach new peak this year!
Investment Feeling on 18-Feb-2011 (Part 1)
Today is the Sg budget announcement day, so as expected, most of the stocks are showing green green again, including mine. Silver price also rise to above US$31 again, recovering from recent dip & correction. Those whom i share with regarding the potential rise of silver in long term view hope they have heard my voice & collect some during the recent dip. Looks like STI index can close with positive on today with starting another possible of uptrend after the recent chaos & today budget announcement? Possible if STI index was being pushed down by invisible hands before it hikes to a new peak? Let us wait & see.
Investment feeling on 17-Feb-2011
Today STI index slightly fall for 10+pts, but my portfolio only -$50. Seems not bad. Some stocks (e.g viking, koh bros, fjben) declare good financial result do not reflect to the actual price changes, indeed they're stagnant or slipping, even though they are giving dividend. Some says most of fund managers have diverted the fund from emerging markets into US or china markets. But as long as overall market trend still remain above 200MA at 3040pts, I'm not quite bother abt the noise. Just hope to grab some stocks (e.g auric & fjben) in discount at the moment. Today dennis commented a very good mindset is if u feel fearful of losing ur money in investment, then the universe will do tat for u. So as I think, I always believe my investment will always make money, but provided I hv assess the downside "what if I'm wrong". This is very important. Happy investing
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