Investment Feeling on 25-Mar-11

After a series of day of rally for STI to stabilize above 3000 points, with thanks to Dow Jones & emerging markets strong rally as well as the situation at Japan (Quake & Nuclear crisis) & Libya (war ongoing) been factored into the consideration, the formation of double bottom has indicated that STI will likely to rebound from that, but it might be happened to be multiple bottom (in short term) due to other concerns, which has been arise in the past of week, e.g. Euro zone credit crisis (Portugal & Spain), the impact of US Treasuries fund (Japan may sell of US bond in order to raise money for rebuilding their country). In the view of long term, the deadline for US Federal of buying the US Treasuries bond on 30-June-11 will be testing the confidence level of investors in the US economy growth & unemployment rate in US, which might trigger the next Global Financial Crisis again. In the view of Mid-term, Emerging markets (including STI) might be continued to rally to test a new high in 2007 provided that the "hot" money will be diverted from US market into the laggard markets here.

To review my current portfolio concurrently with the recent hovering situation, I have only offloaded Yangzhijiang at $1.71, which only 4.5% slim profit for me after holding for 6 months, reasons behind was over-panic for recent market movement, limited upside growth for YZJ and raise the cash level after sold it. But today, it has been rebounded to price of $1.82. So what i have learned is on how to control your emotional during the market correction if you believe the overall market trend is still on uptrend in a bigger picture. As long as the fundamental of a particular stock has never been changed or the overall market cycle is intact, just hold on it until it is reversing. It is really a good opportunity & lesson learned in the past few weeks. As now, my stock portfolio has regained some porfit and will definitely to hold till the last bull run begin before the next Global Financial crisis has begun. It's possible to add-on some position of bargain buy concurrently with the market rally. Let's look forward for the fruitful gain throughout the cycle....

Investment Feeling on 18-Mar-11

Today is the IPO debut day for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, as expected, due to the Nuclear & Quake crisis in Japan and situation unrest in Libya, HPH Trust has closed 6%, which is US$0.95 below IPO price at US$1.01. From the volume transaction & distribution, it seems like retail investors, whom hope to earn some "coffee" money from the IPO has been struggling by the huge selldown by those big institutions. Since the offering price for HPH Trust is largely overvalued & highly over-subscribed pus moderate & unattractive dividend yield, it looks like there is a room for improvement to all the retail investors for their financial knowledge.

STI has been closed below 3000 pts continuously for 4 days, but yet the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA. Overall, STI has declined 3.5% for this week and closed at 2935 pts. Let's see the Nuclear crisis & situation at Libya will be under control or ease, which may trigger the reversal trend for equity market.

Investment Feeling on 11-Mar-11

After the continuous rally for few days to reach 3100 pts above, STI index has dipped below 3050 pts again due to the several concerns, e.g. Libya riots, Saudi unrest (possible to hike oil price), Spain credit terms, China interest rate hike & a major incident happened on Friday afternoon, which was M8.9 earthquake at eastern Japan. This big quake has given the overall stock market a big shock & caused the stock market dipped before closing.

Though overnight US Dow Jones has closed slightly higher, where investors were selectively buying undervalue stocks & those construction, material stocks due to the rebuild situation after the earthquake in Japan. We shall see Asian stock markets situation on Monday whether will be badly affected or rebound due to the better bargain buy on selective stocks. Current focuses on Middle East or North Africa unrest may temporary divert investors' interest to the rescue & rebuild situation in Japan at the moment, I shall pray & bless the people in Japan for the situation to be controlled & safe in the priority. Hope this may not be a big hurdle for the stock market to begin the last Bull rally in the view of market cycle investors.

United SSE 50 China ETF

Extracted from Semi Annual Report for period 1st July to 31st December 2010

Fundamental Analysis

Market Outlook

Remain constructive on the Chinese 'A' shares market. The strong China PMI points to continued improving economic conditions going forward. China's relatively resilient growth versus the rest of the world and strong fundamentals such as high savings rate and low public debt will stand out in the world facing public debt crisis and fiscal consolidation that will stifle growth.

The recent interest rate hikes and policy tighthening do not considered as negative in the medium to long term. It is a good pre-emptive move by the government in the context of an improving economy and potential inflation pressures. Rates hikes in a robust economy can still be good for markets as what happened for China in 2006 and 2007. In fact, it will be positive on earnings for insurance companies and the large banks. The steady appreciation of the Rmb will also make Chinese assets more attractive. Market valuations remain attractive compared to historical levels, as well as relative to regional markets.

Nonetheless, inflation concerns will be a central theme in the near term. The urgency of Chinese authorities in combating inflation goes beyond just financial implications - it involves more societal and national stability concerns of the government as the impact of inflation is strongest on the price of food items, the important necessities of its citizens. In order to prevent potential unhappiness and discontent among its citizens and address the issue immediately, the authorities will definitely be closely monitoring the impact and success of the tightening measures announced thus far. If attempts to contain inflation are unsuccessful, other possible measures to be implemented would probably involve some form of price controls on key food necessities.

Portfolio Review

SSE 50 Index includes the constituents in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials and Telecommunication Services sectors all posted positive returns. The constituents in the Financials and Industrials sectors posted mixed results, while the constituents in the Utilities all fell.

Prospectus from UOB:
http://www.uobam.com.sg/uobam/assets/pdfs/prospectus/sse50_etf.pdf


Technical Analysis

Technical Chart for SSE Composite Index with MA indicators - it shows the index line continuously on uptrend with 200MA at 2735 points, the resistent level will be at 3000 points and the mid-term support level will be at 2850 points.

Technical Chart for SSE 50 China ETF performance with MA indicators - it shows the price line has cut & crossed above the 200 MA line at 2.03 after rebound from the formation of double dip. Historical price at Jan 2010 is at 2.54 as compared to current price at 2.06 which has a potential upside of 23%.

Conclusion

SSE 50 China ETF is a good alternative to invest into China stock market if you are not familiar with the individual China A shares. Due to potential growth for emerging markets like China which has taken over Japan as World No.2 largest GDP country (behind US) and the appreciation of Renminbi currency, a potential record high for SSE Composite Index in this year 2011 is possible after the depression & dip from previous year 2010. As a result, I will recommend to invest into SSE 50 China ETF as a ride follower to the growth of China market.

Recent IPO Listings (Updated on 06-Mar-2011)

IPOs Comparison for recent listings in SGX market (Data extracted from Shareinvestor website):

Remarks:

^{^} Amtek - 18,500,000 Singapore Public Offer Shares do not include the 1,500,000 Reserved Shares
^{^} Mewah - 12,584,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 6,506,000 Reserved Shares
^{^} Mun Siong - 95,000,000 Placement Shares do not include the 10,000,000 Reserved Shares
^{^} MapletreeInd - 80,645,000 Public Offer Units do not include the 25,500,000 Reserved Units

IPO - Hutchison Port Holdings Trust

Hutchison Whampoa's ports unit is looking to raise as much as US$5.8 billion (S$7.3 billion) in an initial public offering in Singapore, allowing investors to tap into China's booming infrastructure business. South-east Asia's biggest listing comes at a time when intra-Asia sea-borne trade is swelling, and global container-shipping firms are putting more ships and resources to serve Asian routes from Europe and North America.

Background:
Hutchison, the world's largest container-terminal operator, is owned by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka Shing, who is spinning off HPH Trust in the separate listing in Singapore to take advantage of regulations that are favourable for trust-like companies.

The Business portfolio of HPH Trust comprises:
HPH Trust’s interest in the operators of the Portfolio Container Terminals which consists of:
(i) Hongkong International Terminals Limited, the owner and operator of Terminals 4, 6, 7 and two berths in Terminal 9 at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ HIT ”);
(ii) 50% interest in COSCO-HIT Terminals (Hong Kong) Limited, the owner and operator of Terminal 8 East at Kwai Tsing, Hong Kong (“ COSCO-HIT ”);
Together, HIT and COSCO-HIT had approximately 60% of the market share of Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong, by throughput in 2009 and operate 14 of the 24 deep-water berths in Kwai Tsing Port, Hong Kong;
(iii) 56% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phases I and II;
(iv) 50% interest in Yantian International Container Terminals (Phase III) Limited, the operator of Yantian International Container Terminals Phase III and its expansion project, which is being developed; and
(v) 50% interest in Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Limited, the operator of Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase I and Shenzhen Yantian West Port Terminals Phase II, which is being developed.
Yantian (which comprises Yantian Phases I & II, Yantian Phase III, Yantian Phase III Expansion, West Port Phase I and West Port Phase II) is the leading privately owned and operated deep-water container port in East Shenzhen, and the overall market leader in Shenzhen with a market share of approximately 47% by throughput in 2009.

Investors:
Paulson will invest US$350 million in the IPO, whereas a Temasek unit will put in US$100 million. Singapore port giant PSA International has a 20 per cent stake in Hutchison's portfolio of ports, which it bought for US$4.4 billion in 2006. PSA itself has long talked of a public listing here, but has no immediate plans to launch an IPO.

The prospectus link as below:
http://masnet.mas.gov.sg/opera/sdrprosp.nsf/e25d3309aa11eacd48256f64000f86d1/42732CEE2BFBBB75482578450010B1AC/$File/HPH%20Trust%20Preliminary%20Prospectus%20(28%20Feb%202011).pdf

Distribution Yield :
5.5% - 6.5% (FY2011) and 6.1% - 7.2% (FY2012) ; based on the minimum and maximum offering prices.

The NAV calculation as below:Total Equity (Net Assets)=US$1371.2 millions (Based on latest finanical results on AY2010)
No. of shares issued=3619.29 mil to 3899.51 millions
Net Asset Value (NAV)=US$1371.2/(3619.29 ~ 3899.51)= US$0.35 ~ $0.38

In my opinion, it's NOT a bargain buy as compared to the Offering Price at US$0.91 ~ US$1.08.

Technical Analysis for Silver

Silver price has been reaching at US$34++ since the highest record in 1980s at US$50. The resistance level is at US$35, once it breaks the level, Silver price will likely rise to test the level at US$40. Based on the 5 year Silver chart, the 200 MA level is at US$23 which indicate that there requires a major correction of 33% in order to reverse the overall trend of Silver, which is unlikely to happen due to the current high inflation & US Fed printing money factors.

So what are the potential upside for Silver price? Based on my personal opinion, there are few factors:
1) If factoring in inflation, current Silver price should be revised to US$130.
2) Based on historical average Gold / Silver ratio of 30, current Gold price at US$1450, which means Silver price should be rallied up US$48.
3) Gold price is historical high at all time, however Silver price is still considered as a laggard behind Gold.

As Dennis mentioned, "It is NOT silver prices going up, it's each US$ is likely to worth a whole lot less with so much printing of money....and causing Inflation".

Investment Feeling on 01-Mar-11

Due to the encouragement & info sharing by my sifu-Dennis Ng & other investment mentors in the graduates forum, I have managed to hold tight for my stocks portfolio & went thru this time round of storm. STI index has been staying above 3000pts on these few days and even rise for almost 2% on today to close at 3067 pts due to yesterday Dow jones rally & the unrest situation in North Africa & Middle East been digested by market. As a result, the overall market wave still remain uptrend & the possibility of last round of bull run is remain optimistic.

Recently I have just shared some financial knowledge with my colleague & hope she is willing to attend Dennis's seminar for her own development & enhancement. I'm willing to share with others provided they have a willingness heart to learn or listen about it. Sometimes those people are too skeptical to receive other people advise or not willing to pay a price in order to receive a fruitful gain. Or even their egoism has make loss in any kind of investment. As a rule of thumb- "No lunch is free in this world"!