Below is the summary for the information shared by Dennis Ng during seminar graduates gathering, courtesy thanks to Alvin Chow (from www.bigfatpurse.com) for his unselfish & quick summarize for the topics.
http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2011/05/3rd-masteryourfinance-com-gathering-%e2%80%93-16-may-11/
Just to share my personal investment feeling throughout the journey of learning to be a market investor
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Review for Silver movement
Silver price has been plunged from close to record high at US$49 to current price US$35.5, which around 38% major correction. So what's the reason behind for this time round correction? From I think are 1) profit taking as the psychological barrier at US$50; 2) increase of the deposit for Silver futures in US market cause the weaker holder short sell or profit taking; 3) Big financial institution, e.g. George Soros leading fund & World richest man - Carlos Slim Helú has been selling Silver to earn big bucks. But in terms of fundamental view of Silver situation, it still has not been changed all the while as the supply is limited and the demand from emerging markets is robust.
What can you learn from this time round of correction? The only regret I have is not able to sell 50% (Note: not 100% as I still think bullish of Silver) of my holding at the high price, and buy back at low price later. Currently, I'm still enjoying ROI of 26% for my Silver, which in fact, the strategies I have thought is probably I'm going to increase my stake on Silver as the price plunge or stay sideline if the price increase. The mid-term support level is at US$30, as the current price is ranging between US$33 - 36. Compare to the downside (at US$30) & upside (at US$49 as previous record) for Silver price, the decision has come clear that upside is definitely double than downside. Thus I have made my mind to increase the stake.
From the TA, the current price is below 50 MA (US$39.1), slight above 100MA (US$35.35) & far above 200 MA (US$28.84). We shall see if a pattern of head & shoulder will be formed on next few weeks before it might reverse the chart to bearish again.
What can you learn from this time round of correction? The only regret I have is not able to sell 50% (Note: not 100% as I still think bullish of Silver) of my holding at the high price, and buy back at low price later. Currently, I'm still enjoying ROI of 26% for my Silver, which in fact, the strategies I have thought is probably I'm going to increase my stake on Silver as the price plunge or stay sideline if the price increase. The mid-term support level is at US$30, as the current price is ranging between US$33 - 36. Compare to the downside (at US$30) & upside (at US$49 as previous record) for Silver price, the decision has come clear that upside is definitely double than downside. Thus I have made my mind to increase the stake.
From the TA, the current price is below 50 MA (US$39.1), slight above 100MA (US$35.35) & far above 200 MA (US$28.84). We shall see if a pattern of head & shoulder will be formed on next few weeks before it might reverse the chart to bearish again.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Investment Feeling on 01-Apr-11
A new start of the month, STI index has closed above 3100 level at 3120 pts. The investing atmosphere in the past 1 week has been improved significantly from previous bearish trend though current situation (e.g. Libya war, Japanese Nuclear crisis) still remain uncertain at the mean time. The overnight Dow Jones market has remain bullish with the reduce of unemployment rate since 2 years. So the next week STI market will be looked forward to the next level of resistance at 3200 pts or even 3300 pts (provided strong bullish if nothing big happen on next week.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Investment Feeling on 25-Mar-11
After a series of day of rally for STI to stabilize above 3000 points, with thanks to Dow Jones & emerging markets strong rally as well as the situation at Japan (Quake & Nuclear crisis) & Libya (war ongoing) been factored into the consideration, the formation of double bottom has indicated that STI will likely to rebound from that, but it might be happened to be multiple bottom (in short term) due to other concerns, which has been arise in the past of week, e.g. Euro zone credit crisis (Portugal & Spain), the impact of US Treasuries fund (Japan may sell of US bond in order to raise money for rebuilding their country). In the view of long term, the deadline for US Federal of buying the US Treasuries bond on 30-June-11 will be testing the confidence level of investors in the US economy growth & unemployment rate in US, which might trigger the next Global Financial Crisis again. In the view of Mid-term, Emerging markets (including STI) might be continued to rally to test a new high in 2007 provided that the "hot" money will be diverted from US market into the laggard markets here.
To review my current portfolio concurrently with the recent hovering situation, I have only offloaded Yangzhijiang at $1.71, which only 4.5% slim profit for me after holding for 6 months, reasons behind was over-panic for recent market movement, limited upside growth for YZJ and raise the cash level after sold it. But today, it has been rebounded to price of $1.82. So what i have learned is on how to control your emotional during the market correction if you believe the overall market trend is still on uptrend in a bigger picture. As long as the fundamental of a particular stock has never been changed or the overall market cycle is intact, just hold on it until it is reversing. It is really a good opportunity & lesson learned in the past few weeks. As now, my stock portfolio has regained some porfit and will definitely to hold till the last bull run begin before the next Global Financial crisis has begun. It's possible to add-on some position of bargain buy concurrently with the market rally. Let's look forward for the fruitful gain throughout the cycle....
To review my current portfolio concurrently with the recent hovering situation, I have only offloaded Yangzhijiang at $1.71, which only 4.5% slim profit for me after holding for 6 months, reasons behind was over-panic for recent market movement, limited upside growth for YZJ and raise the cash level after sold it. But today, it has been rebounded to price of $1.82. So what i have learned is on how to control your emotional during the market correction if you believe the overall market trend is still on uptrend in a bigger picture. As long as the fundamental of a particular stock has never been changed or the overall market cycle is intact, just hold on it until it is reversing. It is really a good opportunity & lesson learned in the past few weeks. As now, my stock portfolio has regained some porfit and will definitely to hold till the last bull run begin before the next Global Financial crisis has begun. It's possible to add-on some position of bargain buy concurrently with the market rally. Let's look forward for the fruitful gain throughout the cycle....
Friday, March 18, 2011
Investment Feeling on 18-Mar-11
Today is the IPO debut day for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, as expected, due to the Nuclear & Quake crisis in Japan and situation unrest in Libya, HPH Trust has closed 6%, which is US$0.95 below IPO price at US$1.01. From the volume transaction & distribution, it seems like retail investors, whom hope to earn some "coffee" money from the IPO has been struggling by the huge selldown by those big institutions. Since the offering price for HPH Trust is largely overvalued & highly over-subscribed pus moderate & unattractive dividend yield, it looks like there is a room for improvement to all the retail investors for their financial knowledge.
STI has been closed below 3000 pts continuously for 4 days, but yet the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA. Overall, STI has declined 3.5% for this week and closed at 2935 pts. Let's see the Nuclear crisis & situation at Libya will be under control or ease, which may trigger the reversal trend for equity market.
STI has been closed below 3000 pts continuously for 4 days, but yet the 50MA has not crossed the 200MA. Overall, STI has declined 3.5% for this week and closed at 2935 pts. Let's see the Nuclear crisis & situation at Libya will be under control or ease, which may trigger the reversal trend for equity market.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Investment Feeling on 11-Mar-11
After the continuous rally for few days to reach 3100 pts above, STI index has dipped below 3050 pts again due to the several concerns, e.g. Libya riots, Saudi unrest (possible to hike oil price), Spain credit terms, China interest rate hike & a major incident happened on Friday afternoon, which was M8.9 earthquake at eastern Japan. This big quake has given the overall stock market a big shock & caused the stock market dipped before closing.
Though overnight US Dow Jones has closed slightly higher, where investors were selectively buying undervalue stocks & those construction, material stocks due to the rebuild situation after the earthquake in Japan. We shall see Asian stock markets situation on Monday whether will be badly affected or rebound due to the better bargain buy on selective stocks. Current focuses on Middle East or North Africa unrest may temporary divert investors' interest to the rescue & rebuild situation in Japan at the moment, I shall pray & bless the people in Japan for the situation to be controlled & safe in the priority. Hope this may not be a big hurdle for the stock market to begin the last Bull rally in the view of market cycle investors.
Though overnight US Dow Jones has closed slightly higher, where investors were selectively buying undervalue stocks & those construction, material stocks due to the rebuild situation after the earthquake in Japan. We shall see Asian stock markets situation on Monday whether will be badly affected or rebound due to the better bargain buy on selective stocks. Current focuses on Middle East or North Africa unrest may temporary divert investors' interest to the rescue & rebuild situation in Japan at the moment, I shall pray & bless the people in Japan for the situation to be controlled & safe in the priority. Hope this may not be a big hurdle for the stock market to begin the last Bull rally in the view of market cycle investors.
Monday, March 7, 2011
United SSE 50 China ETF
Extracted from Semi Annual Report for period 1st July to 31st December 2010
Fundamental Analysis
Market Outlook
Remain constructive on the Chinese 'A' shares market. The strong China PMI points to continued improving economic conditions going forward. China's relatively resilient growth versus the rest of the world and strong fundamentals such as high savings rate and low public debt will stand out in the world facing public debt crisis and fiscal consolidation that will stifle growth.
The recent interest rate hikes and policy tighthening do not considered as negative in the medium to long term. It is a good pre-emptive move by the government in the context of an improving economy and potential inflation pressures. Rates hikes in a robust economy can still be good for markets as what happened for China in 2006 and 2007. In fact, it will be positive on earnings for insurance companies and the large banks. The steady appreciation of the Rmb will also make Chinese assets more attractive. Market valuations remain attractive compared to historical levels, as well as relative to regional markets.
Nonetheless, inflation concerns will be a central theme in the near term. The urgency of Chinese authorities in combating inflation goes beyond just financial implications - it involves more societal and national stability concerns of the government as the impact of inflation is strongest on the price of food items, the important necessities of its citizens. In order to prevent potential unhappiness and discontent among its citizens and address the issue immediately, the authorities will definitely be closely monitoring the impact and success of the tightening measures announced thus far. If attempts to contain inflation are unsuccessful, other possible measures to be implemented would probably involve some form of price controls on key food necessities.
Portfolio Review
SSE 50 Index includes the constituents in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials and Telecommunication Services sectors all posted positive returns. The constituents in the Financials and Industrials sectors posted mixed results, while the constituents in the Utilities all fell.
Prospectus from UOB:
http://www.uobam.com.sg/uobam/assets/pdfs/prospectus/sse50_etf.pdf
Technical Analysis
Technical Chart for SSE Composite Index with MA indicators - it shows the index line continuously on uptrend with 200MA at 2735 points, the resistent level will be at 3000 points and the mid-term support level will be at 2850 points.
Technical Chart for SSE 50 China ETF performance with MA indicators - it shows the price line has cut & crossed above the 200 MA line at 2.03 after rebound from the formation of double dip. Historical price at Jan 2010 is at 2.54 as compared to current price at 2.06 which has a potential upside of 23%.
Conclusion
SSE 50 China ETF is a good alternative to invest into China stock market if you are not familiar with the individual China A shares. Due to potential growth for emerging markets like China which has taken over Japan as World No.2 largest GDP country (behind US) and the appreciation of Renminbi currency, a potential record high for SSE Composite Index in this year 2011 is possible after the depression & dip from previous year 2010. As a result, I will recommend to invest into SSE 50 China ETF as a ride follower to the growth of China market.
Fundamental Analysis
Market Outlook
Remain constructive on the Chinese 'A' shares market. The strong China PMI points to continued improving economic conditions going forward. China's relatively resilient growth versus the rest of the world and strong fundamentals such as high savings rate and low public debt will stand out in the world facing public debt crisis and fiscal consolidation that will stifle growth.
The recent interest rate hikes and policy tighthening do not considered as negative in the medium to long term. It is a good pre-emptive move by the government in the context of an improving economy and potential inflation pressures. Rates hikes in a robust economy can still be good for markets as what happened for China in 2006 and 2007. In fact, it will be positive on earnings for insurance companies and the large banks. The steady appreciation of the Rmb will also make Chinese assets more attractive. Market valuations remain attractive compared to historical levels, as well as relative to regional markets.
Nonetheless, inflation concerns will be a central theme in the near term. The urgency of Chinese authorities in combating inflation goes beyond just financial implications - it involves more societal and national stability concerns of the government as the impact of inflation is strongest on the price of food items, the important necessities of its citizens. In order to prevent potential unhappiness and discontent among its citizens and address the issue immediately, the authorities will definitely be closely monitoring the impact and success of the tightening measures announced thus far. If attempts to contain inflation are unsuccessful, other possible measures to be implemented would probably involve some form of price controls on key food necessities.
Portfolio Review
SSE 50 Index includes the constituents in the Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Materials and Telecommunication Services sectors all posted positive returns. The constituents in the Financials and Industrials sectors posted mixed results, while the constituents in the Utilities all fell.
Prospectus from UOB:
http://www.uobam.com.sg/uobam/assets/pdfs/prospectus/sse50_etf.pdf
Technical Analysis
Technical Chart for SSE Composite Index with MA indicators - it shows the index line continuously on uptrend with 200MA at 2735 points, the resistent level will be at 3000 points and the mid-term support level will be at 2850 points.
Technical Chart for SSE 50 China ETF performance with MA indicators - it shows the price line has cut & crossed above the 200 MA line at 2.03 after rebound from the formation of double dip. Historical price at Jan 2010 is at 2.54 as compared to current price at 2.06 which has a potential upside of 23%.
Conclusion
SSE 50 China ETF is a good alternative to invest into China stock market if you are not familiar with the individual China A shares. Due to potential growth for emerging markets like China which has taken over Japan as World No.2 largest GDP country (behind US) and the appreciation of Renminbi currency, a potential record high for SSE Composite Index in this year 2011 is possible after the depression & dip from previous year 2010. As a result, I will recommend to invest into SSE 50 China ETF as a ride follower to the growth of China market.
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